I thought my brand new B.S in Engineering was going to be worth something. I couldn’t have been more wrong. It was three decades ago. I remember the dryness on my tongue as I sat there, mouth open in astonishment, listening to the salary they wanted to offer me.

I was on the interview circuit- off to start my career after four long years of college. I had just graduated from Arizona State University with an Aerospace Engineering Degree, I had earned all the flight certificates possible, I was one of the youngest Certified Flight Instructors in the country at the time, and I figured I was going to be getting an awesome job, making some awesome bucks.

Throughout my 4 years in Tempe I worked nights as a waiter, always at the best places in town, so my tip income was good. I probably took home $300/weekend in tips. For a part-time waiter who really was a full-time student, that was decent income! Combined with the free lobster tails and wine every night, I had a pretty good living as a starving student.

I didn’t know just HOW good I had until I graduated, and started interviewing.

I was thrilled when Lear Jet in Wichita told me they wanted me to work for them. The job had sounded awesome–I’d be flying Lear Jets for a living, I’d be with a super brand in aviation, and I thought I could figure out a way to make boring-Wichita fun. It all sounded wonderful, until they mentioned the starting salary.

“Whaaaaat?” I said fighting desperately for saliva. “I make that in a week waiting tables at the Windjammer in Tempe! You’re saying that would be my MONTHLY salary?”

“Yes,” the President of Lear Jet responded, “you’ll find that’s what recent graduates with a B.S. in Engineering get as a starting salary.”

“But I can make more money than that waiting tables part time!” I said in exasperation. “And you don’t need a college degree to be a waiter!”

“Well” he said, “after you’ve paid your dues, in a few years, you’ll start seeing some increases.”

Pay my dues? Hadn’t I already “paid my dues” for four years? So I declined the job offer, and went into real estate instead, leaving my B.S. in Engineering as a diploma only, a framed memory of what might have been the worst investment in my life.

What I discovered first hand thirty years ago, is even more true today. The University model is broken. The investment is way too high for such a low pay out. If you doubt that, ask any parent.

The cost to send just one child to a typical state University is more than the cost of buying a new car each year. If we then expanded the category to that of private Universities, it’s like buying a new condo each year. Seriously, to send just one child to a decent University for 4 ½ years (yes, the time keeps increasing along with the costs) the average family will have to come up with over $125,000*. If you happen to have 4 kids you’ll need a half a million dollars, not counting things the little things like food and clothing.

Over three years ago, Forbes was one of the first to suggest that the University promise was a myth, when they published their famous “5 Reasons to Skip College”, summarized here:
1. You’ll be losing four working years in college, accumulating debt;
2. You won’t necessarily make more money after you graduate;
3. You could make more money skipping college;
4. You can learn in other ways, outside the classroom;
5. Plenty of other people did fine without college.

Today it’s even worse. It’s not like there are jobs just waiting for all these college graduates in 2009. States are laying off administrators, teachers, and city planners in record numbers, while at latest count, America’s leading corporations have let over 1 million employees go. Our country has way too many lawyers per capita, (according to their own associations), way too many people with “Political Science” degrees, and way too many Vetrinarians. In today’s new socialized medicine environment, a career in medicine no longer pays, (unless you come from India), and the majority of “want ads” in the health industry are for low-level nurses willing to move and work the night shift.

Many graduates today are faced with three horrifying choices after investing over $100,000 in their future. They can:
1. Go work at a restaurant or retail store;
2. Take a professional job in their chosen field for minimum wage, in a place like Wichita;
3. Go to graduate school. (And keep spending money.)

It’s no wonder many high-school graduates today are saying “No way!” to the University Myth, and shouting “Yes!” to the immediacy of a high-paying career without the need for college.

In short, let me conclude with a question. What do the following people have in common?

• Michael Dell
• Henry Ford
• Rachel Ray
• John D. Rockefeller Sr.
• Bill Gates

You guessed it – no college!

There are many options for today’s High School graduates who want to start a career now, many of which produce significant first-year income. In Part II of this series I’ll present some of those in detail.

Geoffrey Thompson

NOTES:
*According to a recent article by “Inside Higher Ed” the average cost for a University degree in Florida was $170,831 for “multidisciplinary studies” and $259,781 for an M.D. Complete Report here (pdf):
www.deltacostproject.org/resources/pdf/johnson3-09_WP.pdf

Here’s a cool little widget that will tell you how much College costs in your state:
http://cgi.money.cnn.com/tools/collegecost/collegecost.jsp

Here’s an article entitled: “The Four Year College Myth” by the Boston Globe:
www.boston.com/bostonglobe/magazine/articles/2009/05/31/the_four_year_college_myth/

I am writing my blog post this morning from paradise. I’m in Cabo San Lucas, a place I love second only to my beloved Chile, not only because of the beach and climate, but because it reminds me of San Diego in the 1960’s. Relating to the 60’s in a beach community like this is good perhaps for setting a tone in a bar or restaurant, but it can be deadly in the current real estate market.

I have made lots of  friends here in this marvelous community founded by Desi Arnaz and Ernest Hemingway, both locals and those from Canada and the USA who now call this home. I’ve shared  dinners with some of the leaders of this town, tourism directors and more, and in just about every industry but one, they really have it together here. Cabo understands technology, publicity, and marketing communications.

That excellence in marketing and acumen in business communications however, unfortunately, does not extend to the majority of local real estate professionals, in my view. I have been stunned by the lack of sophistication and technological savvy in our industry here. It’s almost as if most are “stuck” in the 1960’s, both attitudinally, as well as technologically. I’m not just talking about the fact that if you mention “Twitter” or “blogs” most realtors here look at you like you have something on your shoe; I mean they are not even using email correctly. Let me explain.

There’s a famous true story in both L.A. and St. Louis that date backs to the mid 1960’s when the McDonnell Aircraft Company, as it was then known, purchased the Douglas Aircraft Company. On one of its first post-purchase visits to Long Beach, executives from the conservative Midwestern-based McDonnell were surprised to find the Douglas plant virtually empty of staff and executives one Friday morning. It was around 10:00 AM, there were planes to build, yet whole departments sported empty desks from wall to wall.

As the story goes, “Mac” himself, the founder of McDonnell Aircraft, turned to his Douglas tour guide and said, “Where the hell IS everybody? Didn’t they know we were coming?”

Without a beat, the Douglas liason, replied, “Well, yes sir, but you know, it’s the tide tables and all.” Noticing the “deer in the headlights” look on James McDonnell’s face, the Douglas employee realized that “Mac” was not tracing with his Southern California lingo, so he restated his answer more clearly:

“I mean”, he said in all seriousness, “surf’s up this morning, baby!”

Yep, most of the key staffers had gone surfing! It was only then that McDonnell realized that the culture “out west” at Douglas aircraft was much different than in St. Louis, and if they intended to make this merger work, they’d have to do something about this antiquated mentality!

• Months before arriving here in Cabo I used the Internet to find local real estate professionals. I selected a half-dozen or so that looked good based on a directly listing I found, and emailed them all a full page of details about me and what I was looking for. How many do you think actually responded? A grand total of two. One of the two responses was a castigation e-mail by one of the oldest realtors in Cabo, scolding me for using email! I quote “This is a small town and we all know you sent multiple emails. This was bad form,” she said, in tones that at best could be described as discordant. Can you believe it? I actually had the temerity to send multiple emails!

• After being here a day I saw a property near the house we are renting, and called the phone number shown on the For Sale sign. Spent about 5 minutes answering “qualifying questions” with the agent on the phone who told me he’d “call me right back.” Three days later, I called HIM back. He didn’t have a clue who I was.

• Went out to my car the third day here and found a very savvy real estate agent had stuck a bumper sticker advertising his firm on my back bumper. No, he didn’t ask, nor introduce himself. I called his office to politely suggest that this kind of thing was better done “with advance permission from the car’s owner,” but after three attempts to reach the Broker, leaving my name and number, to this day still haven’t received a return call. Maybe he’s do busy with his bumper sticker business.

Yesterday I walked past a well known real estate brand’s office in the heart of Cabo who had pasted literally EVERY square inch of their front windows with listing sheets. I do not exaggerate when I say I could not find a quarter-sized hole in the glass to look into. It was around 9:00AM, tourists were on the street, shops were open, but this office was wallpapered shut. No one around. I tried to find an email address or phone number on the door, but to no avail.

• Then I opened up the local Cabo 4-color magazine and found three full-page ads for new developments- beautiful ads by developers up and down the corridor, all targeting US buyers, with gorgeous shots of their homes overlooking the Sea of Cortez. I called all three. First one: phone was answered by a “temp” who spoke beautiful Spanish but no English. Second call: phone rang 43 times and never answered. This was at 11:00 AM. Last one? got a recording, the number was out of service.

Could I have pushed those calls more? Of course! I speak Spanish, I know how to redial the phone, but that’s not my point.

Even though Cabo hasn’t experienced as deep a recession here, or as dramatic a “bubble”, it seems to me that they should get with the program. Their customers of today, and the future, are connected, blogging, tweeting, Blackberry, iPhone laptop users, who do not have time or inclination to read listing sheets taped to windows, or wait three days for return phone calls.

Now the good news is, there are exceptions. Both Snell Real Estate and Ehrenberg & Associates are doing it right, using e-mail, the Internet, and cell phones well, in a real-time basis. If you email them they’ll respond professionally, and immediately.

Some of these other folks, well, all I can say is, don’t be surprised if you find a bunch of empty desks and a part-time janitor explaining that the reason your emails, tweets, or calls haven’t been answered is because “surf’s up, baby!”

Geoffrey Thompson

Last year we decided to make the focus of our blog “Good News in Real Estate” because positive news had become so hard to come by.  Every day was FULL of daunting reports about the housing market and the economy.  Finding anything hopeful was difficult.  Now just a few months later, you can’t get away from the good news - it’s EVERYWHERE.  And the good news is that the housing market appears to be pulling out of its tailspin.

Even though we all knew the bottom would get here eventually, none of us really knew how low we’d go or how long the ride would last.   And truthfully, we don’t know for sure that we’ve reached the actual bottom.  But even if there’s another dip or two in the ride I for one enjoy the chance to catch my breath and feel the ground under my feet.

One of the things I love about our business (American School of Real Estate Express, LLC) is that we’re all realists here.  The partners are all old enough and experienced enough (I’m the youngest at 50) to have witnessed ups and downs of the economy and the real estate market.   We’ve seen markets skyrocket and we’ve seen them come crashing down.  What we’ve never seen is a crash without a recovery.  This is why we’ve been encouraging real estate professionals to hang in there through the crash.  Real Estate will turn around and we believe that those who stay with it will not be disappointed.

As a business, RealEstateExpress.com has viewed the downturn in the market as an opportunity for us to grow.  We’ve been aggressive about adding new schools in states where we didn’t already have them.  We’ve added many new courses and we will be launching out into some new real estate related niches very shortly.  All of this during the biggest downturn we’ve seen since we founded the company in 1996.

We’re encouraging others to do the same.  Take this opportunity and make an investment in your career/business.  If real estate is something you have a passion for and you’re not already licensed, get your  real estate license.  Take a step of faith and sign up for that pre-license course.   If you’re already licensed and thinking about letting your license expire,  don’t do it!  Instead, use this time to develop additional skills that will help you be more effective and more successful when market conditions improve.

The Good News Continues!

David Goldstein

I got my first real estate broker’s license in 1975. I was still in college, had hair beyond my shoulders, and just to go to real estate school I carried a full suitcase full of books, amortization tables, and something like an abucus with me. I remember taking the Licensing Exam with a #2 pencil on a scantron answer sheet. Remember those forms where you had to “fill the circle completely” or they graded it wrong? And no erasing!

I was in Engineering school at ASU around that time, and the only efficient technology tools available to me at that time were limited to two innovations from 2 different centuries:

• A slide rule

• A brand new TI calculator that cost me $300

That was it, apart from a little plastic strip called a “penny dialer” my geek “phonephreak” friend Richard Weinstein gave me which allowed me to use payphones for a penny rather than the required dime. Yes, it was dishonest, but I’ve since reformed - MagicJacks are easier today.

Today, thanks to the Internet and countless other innovations (that for the most part Americans invented), I have a veritable cornucopia of tools that keep me connected to my businesses while I travel.

How does a guy run three organizations in three locations in two hemispheres, and travel half the year? Here’s an insider’s look at the tools I use:

DEVICES I SHLEPP WITH ME:

• Vonage Phone - local phone numbers, free long distance. Plus, the easiest way to set up a new office without paying rent. This is how many of my students open satellite offices on the cheap.

• Magic Jack- plug it in, and VOIP rocks. Just like Ma Bell only without the cost. Now you can get them at Walmart.

• USB wide band- cell-based wireless Internet connectivity in pen-driver size. These are usually unique per country.

• iPhone - One touch weather, FAA reports, stock, GPS, Internet, e-mail Steely Dan hits, etc. Mine was hacked to unbrick AT&T for International use.

• CanonPowershot- to “show” what I mean digitally over the Internet

• PenDrivers- as backups of all my important things…because Airport scanners have fried my hard drives before.

• Sams’ Long distance calling card- For International calls from payphones when nothing else works.

• Kindle 2 - to carry a room full of encyclopedias in your pocket for easy reading.

ONLINE TOOLS I USE:

• Wordpress - the king of blogs and what we use here;

• Twhirl - Easiest way to post, retweet, shorten URLs, and see my follower’s posts

• Twitter and TweetGrid- The social media phenomenon and a real-time way to get the latest news, industry updates and market research from feet on the street.

• FreeTranslations - For when my Spanish fails me

• TweetDeck - Because the newest version has a one-button translation feature.

• Sharepoint - Microsoft’s product adapted for our businesses that lets me communicate with our 37 contractors scattered all over the globe.

• Octos - Our own proprietary webmanagement system that David Goldstein created to let me see our business like an MRI in real-time. Can’t show you this cause it’s our secret sauce.

• Odiogo - Text-to-speech converter that allows me to “hear” blog posts RSS’s and more in a funky startrekky voice—but great when your hands are occupied. We have installed it on this blog if you want to try it.

• Zillow – replaces like six former online tools in a very slick macro view of real estate and mortgage trends; As Spencer Rascoff says, it gives me “an edge in real estate.”

Everything mentioned above goes neatly in my flight bag, along with my laptop, clothes, and other essentials, and fits in the overhead compartment of the average airline (LanChile excluded. Sorry Sebastian.) My point is, no matter where I am, my “office” goes with me.

Sure, it can get a little confusing at first with all the bells and bongs going off…my laptop screen sometimes looks like something from NASA, and many times I have tried to “answer” a blog or a twitter by reaching for one of my cellphones…but you get used to it.

Do I ever long for what I had in 1975?

No, not for a minute. Well…except for the hair. That I do miss.

Stopped by McDonald’s yesterday for my fake cup of Starbuck’s and two headlines jumped out at me:

“This weekend’s event will include food, music, the chance to test drive Mercedes cars and Harley Davidson motorcycles, plus the chance to win prizes.”

“The lucky winner will also get a brand new red Corvette thrown in at no charge.”

If I read those two headlines just two years ago, in 2007, and someone told me that these promotions were related to selling a house, I would have been dubious. But here we are in 2009, and increasingly real estate professionals are finding that in order to be successful, and actually capture prospective customers, they need to do more.

Until recently, most real estate salespersons, as their titles implied, focused on selling, and selling only. Marketing was either ignored completely, or left to the owners and brokers - And why not?

Through 2006 customers were easy to find, they usually came to us, and in the feeding-frenzied atmosphere of that period of “over-exuberant” optimism, most real estate salespeople were so busy they were hiring assistants to help with the workload. All they needed to do then was literally “sell.”

But in the today’s more competitive marketplace, marketing as a science is back. And “sales” is always a subset of marketing.

Without trying to sound pedantic, let’s remember the difference between marketing and sales, using McDonalds as an example. The science of marketing begins with two columns. On one side is “Product Differentiation.” The other side has “Market Segmentation.” The idea is that there is a scale or balance that says: “My product is a fast-food breakfast served with great coffee,” (left side of the scale) “that will perfectly fill the needs of the soccer mom on a budget who needs a quick bite and a social center with other moms,” (right side of scale.) Once we have those two sides in balance, we then move into the communication of that to our prospective customers. That’s where selling comes in.

In this abridged example, that means that we now put a guy in a Ronald McDonald clown suit on the corner to wave traffic in and “sell” people on the idea that they should pull into McDonalds right now, order that great breakfast, and chat with the other moms while little Danny Jr. is occupied with the legos.

Now, before any of my fellow real estate professionals get offended, I am not comparing us to circus characters with helium, hats and horns. But in today’s real estate marketplace, if all we are doing is trying to wave people in to our businesses with a big smile, lots of makeup, and a bright red coif, we will likely be disappointed with the results.

Clever real estate salespeople today are realizing that it is far better to begin with, and take advantage of, all the tools in the marketing formula, not just personal selling. So today we have boat tours of Florida foreclosed properties, online open houses with prizes, and everything from boats to planes to tickets to the Superbowl now included in listings – or even thrown in at the last minute to sweeten a deal. In marketing terms, we call those additional incentives “sales promotions,”, and they can and do work as long as we know who our target customer is.

McDonald’s ideal target customer is soccer moms.

So why the clown?

Because even though Mom is driving, little Danny Jr. sees the clown on the street, and through tears, bribes, or whatever other coercions 3 year old boys have in their arsenal to get what they want, he forces mom to pull in.

Every real estate agent knows the old axiom- it is the wives who ultimately “buy” a home, based first on how she feels about the beautiful kitchen and Master bath. So why the Corvettes and Harleys?

Because just like McDonalds discovered, sales promotions work when you know your target audience.

Park that Hog or Corvette on the lawn as the average house-hunting couple drives by and I guarantee Danny SENIOR will use tears, bribes, or whatever other coercions 30-year old boys have in their arsenal to get what they want, and he’ll force “mom” to pull in.

After that, sure we’ll show Mrs. Danny Senior the kitchen and bath, we’ll talk up the walk-out basement, and we’ll use our sales skills to win the day. But these days, in many cases we never would have gotten the Mrs. into that property, without Danny Senior seeing the car on the lawn.

Don’t think these types of promotional techniques are not for you. Sales promotions are easy, and they are becoming one of the many new tools we use to ride out this tough market, and keep our businesses growing.

Besides, parking a Harley in front of an open house is much more fun, and way less humiliating than putting on size 18 shoes and sporting a red nose in a funny hat.

Geoffrey Thompson

First : If you’re unfamiliar with Twitter, watch this clever video “Twitter in Plain English” before you read this blog post.  The video is fast, fun and explains Twitter very clearly.

Until recently I was anti-social.  When Christine Churchill (one of the few true “Search Gurus” out there) told me a few years ago that social media would become a key ingredient in the internet marketing mix I didn’t believe her (sorry Chris).  It didn’t seem to make sense to me so I didn’t attend any of the social media events or workshops, I didn’t start a blog and I didn’t read even the first two sentences of Cluetrain Manifesto which states:

“A powerful global conversation has begun. Through the Internet, people are discovering and inventing new ways to share relevant knowledge with blinding speed.”

Nothing I’ve seen so far illustrates the truth of that statement more than Twitter does.  Twitter allows users to participate in real time conversations about anything that interests them and this “real time” element is the “blinding speed” that makes Twitter so powerful.  Now, I’m not sure if Twitter is a huge fad that will pass or if it’s going to “take” and be with us long term.  What I do believe is that it is proving that the idea of global, real time communication must be taken seriously.  Yes, Twitter is “social” but there are also potential business benefits and personally, that’s what I’m interested in learning more about.

Although Twitter has been around for a few years it’s just recently caught fire.  Lots of groups, communities and niches have adopted Twitter in a big way including the real estate industry.  Real Estate Agents and Brokers love it.  Personally, I opened a Twitter account about 5 weeks ago and my experience has been mostly good (which means some of it has been something other than good).

The Good

Over the past few weeks I’ve discovered many really great people and businesses on Twitter.  I’ll give you just two examples.

We put a new page on our real estate school website that compares online career education options.  I posted a tweet announcing the new page and as a result, it was viewed by someone at a company called Careerealism.com. They have a popular blog that focuses on a wide range of career issues. They liked the information we presented on our website and so they Retweeted the link to their network of 3000+ followers.  Then, they wrote an article about why this is a good time to become a real estate agent and posted it on their blog with a link to our online real estate school.  Pretty cool, huh? (If you’re a Twitter user you can follow these guys here)

I also connected with a local real estate entrepreneur/consultant who develops real estate brokerage tools and technology.  I found tweets posted by Eric Stegemann to be very interesting so I read some of his blog posts.  By reading his blog posts I learned that Eric has a great grasp on web marketing especially when it comes to the social aspects.   We met face to face last week (#f2f in twitterese) and spent 2 hours discussing internet marketing and the real estate business.  I learned a lot in that two hours and made a new friend as well! (You can follow Eric  here)

The Not so Good

Just a couple examples of what I haven’t loved about Twitter.

It’s hard to communicate in short 140 character messages.   That 140 character limit forces me to take extra time to make my message clear and compact.   I sometimes take a few minutes to compose a tweet and then after all that work I decide not to send it.  Maybe that’s a built in tactic on Twitters part to discourage people from posting unimportant stuff but it’s annoying to me.

Twitter can be distracting and time consuming.  Especially when I was first learning Twitter, it took a lot of my time.  It’s getting better now.  I figure I’m spending about 30 minutes a day at this point which I think is reasonable. These 30 minutes  come in the form of several short visits to Twitter.  I need to learn to balance the amount of time I spend with the benefit it is bringing me and my business.  Still figuring that out.

I’d be very interested to hear your thoughts and experiences with Twitter.  How are you using Twitter to benefit your business? What do you like about it or hate about it? Please post a comment and share your thoughts!

David Goldstein

PS - Here are a few people I like to follow on Twitter.  You may enjoy following them too.  Just click on their name and you’ll be directed to their Twitter homepage.

Spencer Rascoff - Zillow COO

Kevin Cottrell - This guy has a crystal ball for news!  He keeps me up to the minute with breaking economic and real estate news.

Linda Thomas (The News Chick) - another great source for breaking news.

Christine Churchill- President of KeyRelevance.com

And you can follow me as well! Follow David Goldstein

Home buyers… receive the gift!  Right now we’re looking at historically low interest rates, the most affordable home prices in years, what looks fast approaching bottom of the real estate market in general, improved buyer confidence, an $8000 first time buyer tax credit, and now buyers can even get “Layoff Insurance”. These incentives are stacking up like gifts under a christmas tree!

Last week was filled with news reporting that the market bottom seems to have arrived in some areas of the country and forecasting that all parts of the country will have bottomed by the 1st quarter of 2010.  It seems that the free-fall is ending and that’s good news!

We’re still hearing negative news as well.  The most troubling is our country’s high unemployment numbers.  Nearly 8.5% of Americans are currently unemployed. Over 20% are classified as “underemployed”.  We’ve been told for some time that during a recession we can expect unemployment to skyrocket.  We’ve also been told that an improvement in employment numbers will signal the end of the recession so we’d like to see that happen as soon as possible.  Forecasts by the “experts” estimate that we’ll see the signs we’re looking for later this year.

In the mean time, it’s a MEAN time for workers.  People are concerned about losing their jobs and it’s a fear that keeps many from taking advantage of purchasing a home today.  So… how do you convince someone who’s sitting on the fence because of employment concerns to make a decision to buy?  Eliminate that concern by offering them “Layoff Insurance”!

That’s just what several home builders including Lennar Corp., Pulte Homes Inc., The Ryland Group Inc. and Toll Brothers Inc. are doing.  For between $450 and $900 a buyer can be insured against loss of employment within 2 years of the purchase.  The insurance will cover payments (including taxes, interest and insurance) up to $2500 per month for 6 months.

It seems to me that just about every day there’s another reason to jump in and make a real estate purchase.  I believe that those who take advantage of these unprecedented opportunities will be happy they did.  Those who don’t pull the trigger may have some major regrets a few years from now.

Buyers certainly don’t have to buy “today” but in my opinion they should be looking and they should be getting things in order so they are well positioned to obtain a mortgage.  Prices aren’t going to skyrocket this year and neither are interest rates.  There’s no big rush, but this looks like the year to buy in most parts of the country, especially for 1st time buyers.

Of course the increase in market activity is great news for real estate agents and brokers! I’ve been monitoring hundreds of them via Twitter and it’s amazing to hear reports of “multiple offers” and even “bidding wars”.  Mostly though, these people are simply reporting that they have suddenly become very busy after a long period of quiet.

Many readers of this blog are considering a career in real estate and are waiting for the perfect time to jump in.  I’m not sure that the timing could  get much better than it is right now.  I read a couple articles last week about what the real estate market recovery will look like.  In the past we’ve seen fast steep recoveries (sometimes referred to as “V” shaped) after market downturns,  but experts today are thinking this recovery will be more gradual (referring to it as a “U” shaped recovery).  So for someone who’s looking for a career that has excellent near and long term potential, real estate fits the bill.  Here’s where to learn how to get your real estate license!

Hopefully we get some more good news this week - I expect we will!

David Goldstein

There’s an episode of Dr. House where his team is arguing over some test result and whether or not a change of one percentage point is statically valid. In order to underscore his point that this 1% was very significant, the loquacious Dr. House said this classic line:

“If her DNA was off by just one percentage point she’d be a dolphin.”

What I love about the character of Dr. House is his uncanny ability to see signs of life or hope in otherwise dark, hopeless circumstances. And his belief that small changes in a patient’s test results can indicate big changes in the future. Of course in that episode, the one percent change portended the difference between life and death for the patient.

Dr. House saw it. The others didn’t.

Two recent reports about housing are worth noting and celebrating this week, even if the media doesn’t see them, or is ignoring them.

The NAR just reported that:

1. Existing home sales rose 5.1 percent in February, the largest increase in nearly six years; and
2. Sales of new homes, meanwhile, rose 4.7 percent that month nationwide as well.

As confirmation of this amazing new construction sales turn, Lennart CEO Stuart Miller also reported this week that sales of new homes for this nationwide builder in the month of March were up significantly.

Think about it…Last month heavy with news about foreclosure sales, high inventories, and a supposedly dead construction market, it turns out that new homes were selling almost as well as existing home sales! And that both categories were up by around 5%.

Disappointingly, many news outlets chose to dilute this good news, with the usual caveats and discounting that pervades reporting today.

HUD secretary Shaun Donovan for example, famous for his pro-government philosophy that “the private sector, left to its own devices, is never the best possible solution”, speaking for HUD said today that:

“…the number of troubled loans backed by the federal mortgage insurance program is on the rise as economic troubles continue to mount.”

OK, Mr. Secretary of Gloom, we get it. It’s bad out there. Housing is in a crisis. We copy. But what about this jump in new and existing home sales? Can’t you at least mention that, and inject a little hope into the mix? I mean 5% is nothing to sneeze at, right?

Yet most of the media chose to ignore the signs of life that this 5% represented. One reporter even indicated that this kind of statistical improvement amounted to “next to nothing” in comparison to prior years.

Next to nothing? Come on!

Time for a Dr. House line:

“I was never that great at math, but ‘next to nothing’ is higher than nothing, right?” Dr. Gregory House Season 3.

When it comes to looking at housing, and our industry, I prefer a Dr. House approach, rather than a Dr. Gloom and Doom approach, don’t you? Especially when the statistics support it.

The media sees a jump in home sales of 5% and they consider it an anomaly, a false-positive, a blip on the MRI scan that should be ignored. I see it as a giant sign of life for our industry.

There are more signs that the worst is over. Next posting I’ll report on some more amazing statistics that forecast better months ahead. In the meantime, tell me what you think, by posting a comment here. I don’t care if you agree with me or not, just let me know what you think. As Dr. House said:

“You could think I’m wrong, but that’s no reason to stop thinking.” Dr. Gregory House. Season 4

Geoffrey Thompson

Is your real estate business top-heavy? Are you as lean as you need to be to run the race to win in these tight times?

How often have you looked at yourself in the mirror and declared“I have to do something about my weight” and decided to go on a personal diet plan, but never apply the same critical eye to your business?

I was in a real estate office recently in Florida that clearly needed a “makeover.” It was as if I had been transported to a real estate office in 1976. Journey was playing in the background, they still had literally scores of listing sheets taped to every window that existed in the strip-mall office, and of the five or six employees I observed, only one was working the phones. The rest were taping listings to windows, hoping for the next Bee Gees song.

What a waste of time! What a waste of salaries! Who searches for homes today by going to a strip mall and reading listings taped to the glass?

Today most real estate professionals would agree that their business model has to change, but few have taken any major steps to affect that transformation.

I’d like to suggest you look at your organization today with a critical eye towards “fat”, and consider putting your business on a radical diet.

Fat is defined as the accumulation of substances designed to “store” fuel to convert to energy in the future. This is good for polar bears, Eskimos, and whales, all of which have to survive frigid temperatures for months at a time. But it does no good for marathon runners, Iron Man competitors, or anyone over the age of 18 who is looking for a date. And it also is not good for our businesses.

Fat kills, and keeping “fat” in our businesses as a way to save up or to wait for a day in the future when we’ll “need it” is a formula for disaster in today’s new housing market.

A couple of friends of mine are trying to lose weight and get into shape for the coming summer season, and they’ve opted for the “Atkins” plan. For those of you who haven’t tried this popular diet program, it is basically a “low-carb” dietary plan that allows you to eat protein and fat, with a limitation on carbohydrates. Whether it’s called the “skiers diet”, the “sugar busters” diet, or any other variation on the theme, its success is based on the scientific property known as ketosis.

This is the diet that you start out thinking, “Oh, I can eat all the protein and fat I want, but no carbos? That should be a slam dunk!” Then around day nine with our cravings for carbos through the roof, you can hear us all say such absurd statements as “Pass the butter please, I need to spread more fat on my two bricks of cheese. I’m going to eat it like an icecream sandwich!”

As ridiculous as that sounds, that diet, because of ketosis, actually works. And it can work on your business too.

During ketosis, the body switches from using glucose for energy to using fat, and you lose weight as a result. It is as if our bodies recognize the change of state in our eating, and in order to make up for the lack of one, (carbos) it burns the others. I’ve lost twenty pounds many different times in my life on this plan, and if done rationally, can really get you in shape.

We can apply the same to our businesses, too. By eliminating just one thing that “we’ve always done in the past”, and perhaps overboarding on the two others that remain, you can get your office in to shape as well.

What do I mean? I mean stop doing certain things immediately, and start innovating. For example:

• Instead of “training” new agents in our offices by giving them a notebook, a logo, and classes on “How to get Listings” held in a stuffy classroom, why not train them on the street? Don’t waste time having them work with paper, they need to learn how to deal with people! Put them with your most seasoned agent, and have them spend an entire week with the expert, learning how to “sell themselves” rather than “getting listings.” The future is all about super agents who have lifelong relationships, not about “getting listings.” How antiquated.

• Instead of pasting listing sheets to windows, for no one to see, how about handing out one-page flyers that use terms the public is familiar with today? “Foreclosure Bargains and How to Cash In.” or “Don’t miss the next Foreclosure Auction!” If you put these in a little POP display in local restaurants, hotels, and your local Walmart, you will get callers. Fat agencies will be pasting listings to office windows until their business dies of arterial blockage. Lean agencies will be running fast to keep up with current trends. http://www.discountedproperties.com/

• Instead of “farming” a neighborhood, try niche-marketing a segment. Jason Gokei was a nobody a few years ago. Then he trimmed down his staff, changed his focus, and put the pedal to the medal by announcing that he was the “Condo King!” By focusing solely on this segment, he has become California’s number one agent in this niche. http://www.californiacondoking.com/

• Instead of driving clients around individually, why not have group showings, group events, and group tours? Marc Joseph birthed “Foreclosure Boat Tours” in Coral Gables Florida to abandon his old “fatty” marketing, and start something new. His business is booming because he cut the fat out of his old operation, and started being lean and efficient. Last week was featured on over a dozen news outlets. http://www.foreclosuretoursrus.com/

What else could you do to trim the fat in your organization, and make it leaner for the times? Send me your suggestions and we’ll post them.

The good news about all diets is this: Once you start trimming and leaning out, it gets easier and easier by the day!

Geoffrey Thompson

Things that are rising…

1. The National Association of Realtors says February existing home sales rose 5.1% over January (The largest sales jump since July 2003)
2. February’s median home sale price rose a bit from January (which showed the lowest median price since September 2002)
3. The DOW has risen back over 7700 pts (a gigantic upward move of nearly 500 pts just today)

Things that are falling…

1. Mortgage rates have fallen back below 5%
2. The number of existing homes in inventory is beginning to fall (most notably in Florida and California)
3. Prices (although rising slightly in some of the hardest hit areas) have fallen dramatically mainly as a result of foreclosures.

All of the above are from today’s news. I’ve been waiting to see a combination of news stories like these for months. One thing that would have made today better would have been some improving employment news but that will come.  Yes, we’re far from being out of the woods but these positive signs deliver hope to our super distressed real estate market. Today’s news was good!

David Goldstein